PowerView is IPA Energy + Water Economics’s quarterly assessment of the potential development of the Great Britain wholesale electricity market, including long-term forecasts of electricity, gas, CO2, and Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) prices. We investigate the key drivers which are expected to impact on the electricity market over the next 25 years, including:
- Developments in other energy commodity markets (including oil, gas, and coal);
- Regulatory developments at both the UK and European Union level, including the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for CO2, the Large Combustion Plants Directive (LCPD), the climate change package, renewables targets and changes to the Renewable Obligation (RO) support mechanism;
- Security of supply concerns as generation capacity is closed and demand for electricity grows; and
- The rate of development and cost of new technology, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), third-generation nuclear, and large-scale offshore renewables; and their resultant deployment by market participants.
Our proprietary market model ECLIPSE (Emissions Constraints and Policy Interactions in Power System Economics) is able to capture the complex interactions between these various economic and non-economic drivers through a linear optimisation methodology to help quantify their impact on the industry. We explore a credible range of outcomes for all of the drivers in the form of three scenarios under which power and ROC prices are forecast against self-consistent assumptions for fuel and CO2 prices and economically rational plant closure and build decisions.
For more information about how PowerView can be of use to your business, including how we could develop bespoke forecasts to meet your specific requirements, please contact Nikhil Venkateswaran on +44 (0)20 7659 9888.